As the Director of the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Professor Dator emphasized that there was no way to make an accurate prediction of “the future”. Futures studies is not merely about correctly predicting the future; instead, it is about understanding the varieties and sources of different “images of the futures”, which are expressions of beliefs, ideas, fears and hopes that people hold and express about the futures.
After an extensive analysis of many images of the futures expressed in laws and regulations, government and corporate documents, statements by politicians, public opinion polls, books and essays, etc., Professor Dator arrived at four generic images of the futures, or simply called four alternative futures. These four alternative futures can be called as “growth”, “collapse”, “discipline” and “transformation”.
The majority of all images of the futures are related to "growth", particularly continued economic growth. It appears that most countries would consider this to be the official view of the future of all governments and education systems: they aim to develop a society which keeps the economy growing and changing forever, under the assumption that the society in the present form will continue to grow in the manner that it presently does.
In recent years, “collapse” images of the futures are gaining some popularity as more people than usual worry about the unsustainable environment and economy. This can be a future with, for example, changed climate and sea-level, severely declined population, scarce water, food and natural resources, economies based on farming, fishing and hunting, and absence of national borders and governments.
In order to avoid “collapse” and in recognition of the impossibility and undesirability of continued growth, many people share a “disciplined” images of the futures, in which people’s lives are governed by and “disciplined” around a set of fundamental values such as natural, spiritual or cultural ones in pursuit of a deeper purpose in life than endless economic growth.
The fourth alternative future is “transformation” whereby many technologies are converging rapidly in such a way to transform the society, including humanity from its present form into a new post-human form. The one thing that people still do better than their machines in this future is to be imaginative and creative.
Professor Dator emphasized that no single future could be regarded as the best or the worst. Each future makes very different assumptions about a number of driving forces; therefore, whenever stakeholders envision the futures of education, all the four alternative futures should be equally and fully considered and should avoid privileging one over the others. He also pointed out that consideration of plausible alternative futures would be a necessary step that must be undertaken before trying to move towards preferred societal futures or preferred educational processes. Otherwise, a naïve preferred future will be likely merely a response to current or past problems without preparing to address actual problems and opportunities yet to come. Finally, in discussing futures of education, Professor Dator stated that he believed that education planning and policies should, as far as possible and appropriate, be guided by prior futures foresight activities.
For more information, please contact Ushio Miura [u.miura(at)unesco.org] or Antony Tam [kh.tam(at)unesco.org] at the Education Policy and Reform Unit.
Written by Antony Tam [kh.tam(at)unesco.org]
Related Links:
• SEAMEO Consultation and Workshop on Post-2015 Education Scenarios and Post-EFA Education Agenda in Southeast Asia
• Alternative Futures at the Manoa School, Journal of Futures Studies, November 2009, 14(2): 1-18